Economists expect South Africa’s inflation rate to remain below 4% when the February 2026 consumer price index (CPI) figures are released on Wednesday by Statistics South Africa, although rising global oil prices could create renewed inflationary pressures in the months ahead.
Several analysts say the upcoming data is likely to reflect relatively moderate inflation levels, largely because it captures a period when the rand was still relatively strong and before the recent surge in international oil prices.
Neil Roets, the CEO and co-founder of Debt Rescue, said the upcoming inflation figure should be interpreted cautiously.
“Even if the headline number reflects some short-term relief, the broader outlook remains uncertain, particularly if global oil prices continue to rise. This uncertainty also makes it less likely that consumers will see interest rate relief in the near term,” Roets said.
“Some economists have indicated the possibility of annual inflation slowing again in February, potentially easing to around 3.1% from 3.5% in January. This expected moderation is largely linked to statistical base effects and the petrol price decrease that came into effect at the beginning of the month. However, that does not necessarily mean that underlying price pressures have disappeared or that consumers are experiencing meaningful relief.”
Roets said that monthly inflation is expected to show a slightly stronger increase than the previous month, highlighting the ongoing volatility in price movements.
“Food inflation has also remained relatively contained recently, partly supported by favourable global price conditions, which has helped prevent sharper increases in some grocery items. At the same time, there are emerging risks that could shift the inflation outlook in the months ahead.”
Roets added that rising global oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East, together with currency pressures, could push fuel costs higher again. He said what matters most is how inflation translates into real household pressure.
“Even when the official inflation rate appears moderate, many South Africans continue to feel the incredible strain of rising living costs, particularly when it comes to essentials such as food, transport, and electricity,” Roets said.
“In this environment, even small increases in the cost of basic goods can have a significant impact on already stretched household budgets.”